“Although COVID-19 is an infectious disease that will have non-temperature dependent transmission, our research indicates that it also may have a seasonal component,” said Aruni Bhatnagar, Ph.D., co-author and director of the Brown Envirome Institute. By analyzing data from early in the pandemic, the results were obtained without significant influence by lockdowns, masking or other social efforts to contain the virus. The data analysis showed that between 30 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a 1-degree Fahrenheit increase in daily low temperature was associated with a 1% decrease in the rate of increase in COVID-19 cases, and a 1-degree decrease in temperature was associated with an increase in that rate by 3.7%. Their research, published on February 17, 2021, in PLOS ONE, showed that as temperatures rose, the rate of new cases of COVID-19 decreased. The researchers compared daily low temperature data and logged cases of COVID-19 in 50 countries in the Northern Hemisphere between January 22 and April 6, 2020. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center and others theorized that atmospheric temperature also would affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2. With this understanding, researchers at the University of Louisville’s Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, the U.S. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a large family of human coronaviruses, most of which are characterized by increased transmission in cooler, less humid months and decreased transmission in warmer, more humid months.
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